Iowa Caucus Win Doesn't Predict Trump as Republican Nominee, so What Does It Say?
Former President Donald Trump’s Iowa Caucus win on Monday night does not make him a shoo-in for the Republican nomination in his formidable campaign for president. History reveals that. But it does send a strong message to anyone who doubts the polling, all of which shows Trump trouncing his opponents everywhere. It’s early in the process, but the polling—so far, anyway—isn’t lying.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pretended to be thrilled that while people had counted him out, he came in second place to the 45th president in the Hawkeye State. Or maybe he wasn’t pretending. Generally, coming in second is something to feel somewhat good about, but when the winner has 51 percent, that’s, shall we say…sobering. But knowing he had a tall task taking on Trump and that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has big donors and has been gaining momentum, perhaps DeSantis really was excited that he received 21.2 percent—despite having poured so much into Iowa.
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Haley received 19.1 percent, and Ramaswamy came in fourth with 7.7 percent, which means adding totals from DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy would still give Trump 3 percent wiggle room. I’m horrible at math, so correct me if I’m wrong—but I think I’m good enough to pronounce the win a landslide. Ramaswamy, whom some see as Trumpesque and others see as simply vying for vice president, suspended his campaign following the caucus and, to no one’s surprise, endorsed Trump. See the breakdown in the Politico chart:
Despite Trump’s historic win, carrying 98 out of 99 Iowa counties, losing Johnson County to Haley—by a single vote only—and making his opponents look like scrubs, we cannot assume that this victory secures his nomination. Iowa has not done a consistent job of predicting the GOP nominee. In fact, it’s been 20 years since that has occurred. The Politico chart paints the picture:
So we would have to go back to George W. Bush in 2000 to find Iowa a reliable prognosticator. Having said that, I think if we were honest, we’d have to say we do smell something in the air. Trump is no ordinary candidate, and these aren’t ordinary times. Even his Iowa victory speech seemed more like the victory speech—conciliatory, task-focused, dare I say presidential?
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